
The Iranian economy under the dominance of the mullahs has faced structural and complex challenges, with consequences visible in economic, political, and social dimensions. In an article titled “The Danger of Frostbite for Rulers”, economist Masoud Nili attempts to caution regime leaders and officials about various crises in foreign relations, economics, and social challenges. He emphasizes that “misdiagnosing the situation can lead to irreversible historical costs.”
On December 28, Jahan-e Sanat news website quoted Nili as saying that this time, warnings and admonitions are no longer sufficient.
Jahan-e Sanat wrote, “In recent months, the number and diversity of major problems have dramatically increased, surpassing the stage of concern. What was previously warned about happening in the future has now occurred, revealing its harmful dimensions.”
“Frostbite-Induced Sleep”
The regime’s situation is so critical and on the brink of collapse that, in the economist’s view, it “sends shivers down one’s spine and robs them of sleep!” He compares the regime’s rulers to mountaineers who have succumbed to frostbite and fallen asleep as a result:
“Perhaps our politicians have become like mountain climbers who have suffered from frostbite in the cold of the mountains and have fallen asleep as a result. Although this note is written very bitterly, I hope its bitterness will be a sting that will wake these people from their frostbite sleep” (Ibid.)
Admonitions and warnings from Nili and other regime-affiliated economists may contain sharp criticisms of the clerical regime. However, ultimately, they aim to reform an outdated and regressive system that is destined for collapse.
Considering this, reviewing the warnings of this economist not only underscores the dysfunctionality of the regime’s theocratic fascism but also highlights the necessity of overthrowing the current governance structure.
External Challenges: International Turbulence and Its Effects
- The Prospect of Intensified Sanctions During the Trump Era
The election of Donald Trump as U.S. president could lead to new restrictions on oil exports from the regime. This would directly impact currency markets, the budget, production, and inflation. Additionally, the activation of the snapback sanctions by European countries is more than a mere possibility. - Regional Warmongering and Insistence on Exporting Terrorism
The continuation of warmongering policies and insistence on exporting terrorism could lead to expanded military conflicts and intensify focus on the regime. - The Impact of the Syrian Revolution
With the victory of the Syrian revolution and the strategic weakening of the clerical regime, any military adventurism not only fails to benefit the regime but further pushes the regime’s bankrupt economy toward military expenditures, leading to destruction.
Domestic crisis: unbalanced economy and degraded environment
- Energy Imbalance
Despite Iran’s high global ranking in oil and gas reserves, the energy crisis has led to widespread shutdowns of economic and administrative activities. This reflects structural corruption, managerial incompetence, and a lack of long-term planning in exploiting natural resources. - Air Pollution and Land Subsidence
Air pollution, driven by excessive resource consumption and unsustainable industrialization, has severely harmed public health. Additionally, land subsidence poses a serious threat to the country’s infrastructure and jeopardizes Iran’s territorial future. - Budget Deficits and a Dysfunctional Banking System
The scale of budget deficits and imbalances in the country’s banking system is alarming. The government is incapable of providing public services and making infrastructural investments. The bankruptcy of the pension system has further complicated the situation, directly affected currency rates and inflation and exacerbated economic instability.
Social issues: the spread of poverty and the decline of social capital
- The Growing Population Below the Poverty Line
The 10-million increase in the population living below the poverty line has resulted in rising rates of addiction, divorce, and social crimes. This reflects structural deficiencies in the fair distribution of resources and the inefficiency of economic management. - Corruption and Declining Social Capital
Widespread corruption among officials and rentier economic entities has driven the social capital of the governance system to its lowest historical level. This situation has severely eroded public trust in the regime and pushed society toward rebellion.
Jahan-e Sanat wrote, “Surveys of Iranians’ perspectives indicate that the social capital of the governance system is at its historical nadir.”
- Cultural and Social Disruptions
The disconnect between the younger generation and the governance system, especially on issues like internet filtering, highlights the regime’s failure to understand social and cultural developments. This situation, akin to a fire smoldering beneath ashes, holds the potential to spark widespread social crises.
Isolated Islands in Governance
Masoud Nili argues that the decision-making structure in the clerical regime operates like isolated islands, managing economic, political, and social issues independently of one another.
Regarding the chaotic and crisis-stricken state of the regime and its internal fragmentation, he writes, “The most thriving market in our country remains the political squabble arena, where efforts are focused on dismantling the internal capacities of the political system and destroying the scant social capital left in decision-making structures. One only needs to examine what occupies the primary focus of our influential politicians amid these overwhelming crises. Some dedicate all their efforts to dragging decision-makers into military confrontations. Others tirelessly campaign for the dismissal of a certain official or the resignation of another. Meanwhile, some are preoccupied with the delay in implementing hijab laws. Elsewhere, top government officials still talk about 8% economic growth and executing the Seventh Development Plan. The Majlis, with great fervor, reviews a budget with minimal prospects of realization, as though every institution seeks to distract itself from the main issues by engaging with secondary concerns.”
The Emerging Picture
The image formed from this series of admissions is that the time has passed for politicians to “wake up from frostbite-induced sleep, comprehend the depth of the crises, and formulate a practical and comprehensive plan to save the country.” The more accurate statement would be: “The moment of succumbing to frostbite-induced sleep will inevitably lead to death.”
The countdown to this death has already begun.