Over the past two days, various Telegram channels have reported news about the issuance of various sentences against Iranian students. According to some of these reports, hundreds of students across Iran have been summoned and punished by regime authorities. These news reports indicate that the political and social potential among Iranian society – especially among students and women – in commemorating the anniversary of the 2022 uprising has plunged the regime into an all-round panic.
Why is it that one month before the anniversary of the uprising, on the eve of the opening of universities, the regime suddenly summons hundreds of students to the security and disciplinary committees of universities?
What are the alleged crimes of the students? Not observing the regime’s dress code, participating in the uprising.
What are the punishments? Exile, prohibition from studying for several semesters to several years or permanent suspension, expulsion from the university, higher tuitions.
According to reports, 59 students have been expelled from their universities, 104 students have been suspended for one to four semesters, and 200 students have been banned from dormitories.
These are part of the promises that Hossein Salami, the commander of IRGC, made about a week ago, inevitably admitting that in the face of the anniversary of the uprising in 2022, he had to pave the groundwork for a nationwide repression.
The regime is in a deadlock from its lack of understanding about the political and social characteristics of the society that emerged from the uprising in 2022. One of the main characteristics of the uprising was that the people rejected the regime in its entirety and concentrated their anger at the supreme leader Ali Khamenei.
As a result of the uprising, the society drew its line with the regime clearly. Accordingly, defection within the regime’s accelerated and caused more cracks in the structure of its three branches powers.
Throughout the decades, Khomeini and Khamenei tried to hijack universities and the intellectual elite with the so-called “cultural revolution,” the “unity of the seminary and universities,” and other plans. But today, contrary to their wishes, the university has become one of the beacons of resistance and is playing a leading role in the struggle for regime change.
Resorting to blatant repression and intimidation in universities at the anniversary of uprising will have no benefit for the regime. This folly will only lead to the proliferation of the idea of overthrowing the regime on a wide scale and with maximum acceleration.
This is the characteristic of the period of maturity of the political and social strategic works of the uprising in 2022. The regime feels this, but its inescapable misfortune is its strategy of contraction and consolidating power within the faction that is loyal to Khamenei, it will find itself in a more intense deadlock. This is the reason we see more defections in the regime and the greater growth in the people’s front.
To deny the killing of Mahsa Amini, the regime decided to kill several hundred people. But this caused a sudden shift in the political character of the Iranian society changed fundamentally and the demand for overthrowing the regime gained more speed and depth.
Accordingly, the regime’s plan to spread intimidation and fear in universities will only lead to the proliferation of the only decisive solution, and will promote a more inclusive uprising among universities and students. This is a comprehensive political characteristic after the 2022 uprising. Pay attention that the regime has linked all the accusations of the students to this uprising.
Resorting to bans and intimidation in universities, like all other similar examples – such as the anti-human chastity and hijab bill – has become rusty even in the view of regime insiders and is intensifying infighting among regime factions.
The regime cannot realize that even before the 2022 uprising, demand for regime change was proliferating, but after the uprising, there is overwhelming eagerness for overthrowing the regime, especially by progressive segments of the society like students and women. And the regime is slowly but surely losing its grip on power throughout the country.
The regime’s resorting to any form of repression is like a person drowning in a swamp. The more it thrashes, the more it sinks.