{"id":10442,"date":"2018-06-07T09:52:46","date_gmt":"2018-06-07T13:52:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.irandemocratic.org\/public_html\/news\/?p=10442"},"modified":"2018-06-07T09:58:17","modified_gmt":"2018-06-07T13:58:17","slug":"iran-khameneis-nuclear-dilemma","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.irandemocratic.org\/public_html\/news\/10442\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran: Khamenei\u2019s Nuclear Dilemma"},"content":{"rendered":"

Editorial Source:\u00a0NCRI<\/a><\/p>\n

On Monday, the Iranian regime\u2019s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, finally responded to the U.S. decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal.<\/p>\n

Khamenei\u2019s remarks came nearly four weeks after President Trump announced that the U.S. would no longer be a party to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and after European leaders were unable to offer the regime guarantees that U.S. sanctions would not affect their trade relations.<\/p>\n

Khamenei ordered the regime\u2019s nuclear agency to take steps to carry out a major increase in uranium enrichment.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Atomic Energy Organization of Iran must make the necessary arrangements to reach 190,000 SWU in the framework provided by the JCPOA and must begin some other preparations that the honorable president has ordered beginning tomorrow,” he said.<\/p>\n

He described \u201cprogress on nuclear technology and missile power\u201d as the regime\u2019s \u201cpoint of strength,\u201d adding that, \u201cconstructing various types of missiles and acquiring missile power guarantees the country’s security.\u201d<\/p>\n

One possibility is that Khamenei has decided to expand the regime\u2019s nuclear activities, and his remarks may be the first step to its withdrawal from the JCPOA.<\/p>\n

Another possibility is that his remarks are simply a bargaining chip and empty threats aimed at forcing the EU to give more concessions to the regime. What makes this possibility more likely is that Khamenei\u2019s measured remarks specifically stated that expansion of nuclear activity must be within the \u201cframework\u201d of the JCPOA.<\/p>\n

Khamenei\u2019s remarks are contradictory in nature. He tries hard to sound tough. Yet, he insists that his decision is within the JCPOA framework. This contradiction stems from the regime\u2019s weakness and vulnerability. On the one hand, to boost the morale of his base, namely the paramilitary Bassij and other repressive forces, Khamenei needs to be seen in a stable position. On the other hand, his regime is in deep crisis and desperately in need of external support for its survival. Simply put, it cannot afford the risks of ending negotiations with Europe. This dilemma explains Khamenei\u2019s contradictory remarks.<\/p>\n

Subsequent remarks by Ali Akbar Salehi, head of the regime\u2019s nuclear agency, reveal that the JCPOA, which took effect in 2015, had in fact never fully halted the regime\u2019s advancement of nuclear capability. Salehi said that when regime first signed up to the deal, the Supreme Leader recommended that, \u201cnot only should we not destroy the bridges behind us, but we should make new bridges so that if the other party would not uphold its commitment, we would be in a much more advance position than before the JCPOA.\u201d<\/p>\n

Salehi added, \u201cMuch of the work we have done is emerging gradually, as we could not have announced it back then.\u201d<\/p>\n

He acknowledged that since it signed the JCPOA, the regime has made \u201cadvanced centrifuges\u201d but \u201cdid not announce\u201d it. Yet, he emphasized that this too was within the JCPOA\u2019s framework.<\/p>\n

His remarks were equally contradictory. On the one hand, he wants to show strength, but on the other hand, he knows the regime\u2019s vulnerability and is therefore left insisting that their actions were within the JCPOA framework.<\/p>\n

Still, the regime\u2019s threat of carrying out higher levels of uranium enrichment prompted France\u2019s Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian on Wednesday to issue a warning to Tehran not to cross a \u201cred line.\u201d<\/p>\n

So, what can be concluded from Tehran\u2019s position?<\/p>\n

\u2022 If Khamenei and Salehi were speaking seriously and not just intending to boost the morale of their forces, then the regime has already violated the JCPOA, or at the very least, it could be said that this was a clear testimony to the deficiency of the JCPOA.<\/p>\n

\u2022 The clerical regime is in deep crisis. Offering any concession to the regime is against the interests of the Iranian people and is an attempt to help a corrupt regime that suppresses its own people and is the number one executioner per capita in the world to survive.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Now is the time to call the regime\u2019s bluff and hold it accountable for its actions in the region.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Now is the time to end the silence on the systematic human rights violations in Iran and the crimes committed by the regime against the Iranian people.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Editorial Source:\u00a0NCRI On Monday, the Iranian regime\u2019s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, finally responded to the U.S. decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. Khamenei\u2019s […]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":10448,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[454,57],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10442","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-analysis","category-opinion"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.irandemocratic.org\/public_html\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10442","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.irandemocratic.org\/public_html\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.irandemocratic.org\/public_html\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.irandemocratic.org\/public_html\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.irandemocratic.org\/public_html\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10442"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.irandemocratic.org\/public_html\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10442\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10451,"href":"https:\/\/www.irandemocratic.org\/public_html\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10442\/revisions\/10451"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.irandemocratic.org\/public_html\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10448"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.irandemocratic.org\/public_html\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10442"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.irandemocratic.org\/public_html\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10442"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.irandemocratic.org\/public_html\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10442"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}